Research

Research projects and explorations.

• AI-Generated Economics Papers: An Experiment Can an AI do economic research largely on its own? Five full papers produced by Claude from a brief prompt, with the system that made them explained, a non-working copy of its request form, and every paper’s files. Experimental and unverified.
• Are Markets Underconfident in Predicting the Fed? Every FOMC meeting since 1994, the probability the fed funds futures market put on the decision two business days earlier, and what the Committee did — sortable and filterable, with the write-up behind it. The market almost never misses the direction and often misses the size. Researched and written by Claude under my direction.
• Spending Decomposition: Policy or Conditions? How much of the rise in federal non-interest spending was the government doing more, and how much was the same stance costing more — aging, health costs, prices and the economy. Program by program, over a window you choose, under assumptions you set. An in-progress draft.
• Who Moved on the FOMC: The 2023–24 to 2025–26 Realignment The whole Committee eased — but on the relative scale Bowman and Waller broke sharply dovish while a cluster of former doves moved the other way. A reading of the Fedspeak Tracker’s hawk–dove scores.
• The FOMC and the New Economy, 1993–2001 How FOMC participants used the three “new economy” arguments — productivity, a lower NAIRU, and globalization — and what they implied for rates.